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Bear Essentials December 16th: It's the economy stupid.

December 16, 2024

 It’s the economy, stupid.

In this week’s edition: Economic jitters, our slo-mo election, and the California Exodus story that rises, zombielike, every few years to capture America’s imagination. We’re also bringing you Latino Legislative Caucus drama in Sacramento, a wide-ranging conversation on wildfire mitigation and forest management, and the CA Hall of Fame’s new inductees (Spoiler: They’re great!) For California lovers, it’s like Christmas before Christmas. Dive in.

ECONOMIC ANXIETY HITS HOME

In a major statewide post-Election survey, the Public Policy Institute of California found residents pulsing with economic worries. Despite a range of positive growth indicators, 56% of Golden Staters anticipate bad economic times ahead. Inflation and high housing costs dominate concerns, with nearly 30% of respondents cutting back on food to save money, and more than 25% worried daily about housing expenses. Most disturbing, just one-third believe in the “American Dream,” and 70% think their children will be worse off than their parents. Dig a little deeper into the numbers and you can see why: When asked about the availability of well-paying jobs in their part of California, more than eight in ten view this as a big problem (20%) or somewhat of a problem (64%). The results of the survey are required reading for anyone interested in the issues that matter most to Californians. Carve some time out of your weekend for a deep dive.

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🤫Everything you should know

🔎🗺️ - EXODUS EXAMINATION — The California exodus narrative is older than the freeways. Every few years, someone reboots the same script: smog, gridlock, impossible rents, and dreamers fleeing for the promise of two-for-one houses in Texas. The latest version, fueled by pandemic outflows, follows many of the same beats. But the numbers don’t lie: California has never lost more than 1% of its population, even at its lowest. Still, the anxiety feels sharper now, more political. “They’d really like to see it go up in flames,” USC demographer Dowell Myers says of the national obsession with California’s supposed downfall. Meanwhile, the state soldiers on—too vast, too messy, too singular to fit into neat obituaries. As historian Jason Sexton puts it, “California is not one place.” It never was. Yet another demographer, Hans Johnson, puts his finger on the real question: “The big challenge for California going forward is how do you be a slow-growing state that’s successful, where the economy is strong,” Johnson said. Ahem. We have some ideas… SF Gate

☑️🏃‍♂️🙃 - ELECTION MARATHON — California’s 2024 election saga officially wraps Friday when the Secretary of State certifies results — finally. Slow ballot counting has drawn fire, especially since some lawmakers were sworn in before races were called. Secretary of State Shirley Weber defended the process as a balancing act between speed, accuracy, and security. The drama peaked with Democrat Adam Gray’s razor-thin congressional win, thanks to 220 Election Day votes from a single UC Merced precinct. Meanwhile, the 2025 election circus has already begun, with two special elections already set. California elections: slow, messy, expensive — but never dull. Cal Matters

👀 - CAUCUS FOR ME, BUT NOT FOR THEE? — California’s Latino Legislative Caucus is at a crossroads, teetering between its progressive legacy and a growing GOP wave. Once the unchallenged voice of Latino politics, the Democrats-only caucus now watches as Latino Republicans—who doubled their ranks in Sacramento this year—chip away at its dominance. About a third of all California Republican legislators are now Latino. Inland Empire Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, the daughter of immigrants from the Mexican state of Yucatán, became California’s first Latina Republican state senator when she was elected in 2020; now, there are three. She remembered running into Latino Legislative Caucus members at a dinner her first year in office and initially being upset that she couldn't join them. “I thought, ‘I’m more Latina than many of these folks!’” she told the LA Times. “I have to talk to our caucus,” said Lena Gonzalez, who heads the group. She said some members are considering admitting Latino Republicans, while “others have said, ‘Absolutely not.’” It’s a saga worth following. LA Times

🌲🔥🌳 ON THE POD: FOREST MANAGEMENT

In the final episode of the year of his podcast, “Point of Order,” Assemblyman Josh Hoover was joined by Matt Dias, CEO and President of the California Forestry Association, to discuss the current state of California’s forests, the benefits of biomass, and how responsible forest management can help us reduce catastrophic wildfires. Even if biomass talk isn’t typically your jam, it’s well worth a listen!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VPJjYfNsV0&t=160s

👏👏👏 CA Hall of Fame Inductees

Julia Child. Ina Donna Coolbirth. Tina Turner. This year’s class of inductees to the California Hall of Fame includes seven posthumous luminaries with one extraordinary common thread: they are all women. “The 18th class highlights the inspirational achievements of women who overcame obstacles, making indelible contributions to our culture and influencing the path of history,” said Anne Marie Petrie, Chair of the California Museum Board of Trustees. “We are proud to play a part in recognizing their enduring legacies.” Check out the full list at the California Museum.

🏈🏆🏈 Just call us the Heisman State

Nearly 1 in 5 Heisman trophies have gone to athletes from California — the most of any state. Axios has a great interactive map and more detail to support your bragging rights.

Axios