Unfolding disaster

Another week dominated by the devastation in Los Angeles, the terrifying aftermath of the disaster, and the still dangerous conditions threatening to put the entire nightmare on repeat. Even as we write this, a new blaze has broken out near Castiac, exploding to 5,000 acres in less than two hours. It will undoubtedly grow by the time this message hits your inbox. In this issue of BE, we’re taking stock of a range of downstream effects from the fires: how labor shortages and red tape could stall recovery, why toxic smoke is a long-term threat, and the policy shifts we need before the next disaster strikes.

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But first…

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🔥🔜🏗️🏘️ A MAKE OR BREAK MOMENT FOR CA HOUSING

You know what the California housing crisis didn’t need? More than 12,000 incinerated homes in the heart of Los Angeles. The disaster has sent tens of thousands of homeowners and renters alike scrambling for options in a cutthroat housing market with insurance premiums spiraling into the mesosphere. Vacancy rates in L.A. were already dangerously low, and now, many families face impossible choices: rebuild at immense cost, absorb rising rents, or leave the state entirely. While policymakers promise faster rebuilding, experts say it’s not enough. California must shift toward denser, fire-resistant housing in safer areas. “I think the real wakeup call this is giving is it doesn’t matter how much money you have if you live in a city that has never allowed housing to be built for families,” said Matt Lewis, the communications director for California YIMBY. “The presumption all along has been that fires happen to someone else.”

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<READ THE STORY>

https://www.vox.com/housing/395049/california-lacounty-wildfires-altadena-pasadena-pacific-palisades-housing-homelessess-permitting-ceqa-coastal-rebuild

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🤫 Everything you should know

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😟👷- IMMIGRATION RAIDS COULD BURN L.A. RECOVERY  — Southern California is in a bind: wildfires have destroyed more than 12,000 homes, and the construction industry — already woefully short on labor — relies heavily on immigrant workers, many undocumented. Enter President Trump’s deportation promises, which threaten to gut the workforce needed for rebuilding, stoking fear and driving workers underground. Immigrants account for about 41% of California's construction labor pool, often taking the nonunion, lower-paid jobs no one else will. Deportations — or fear of them — could present a dark range of knock-on effects, derailing recovery efforts, inflating housing costs, and even jeopardizing preparations for the 2028 Olympics. Builders need these workers, but fear of raids might leave L.A. in ashes longer than expected. LA Times

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📃😵‍💫📃- SNAPSHOT OF PERMITTING DYSFUNCTION — Pro surfer Strider Wasilewski got a crash course in the arcane and infuriating world of California construction after losing his Malibu home to the Woolsey Fire in 2018. We’ll spoil the ending: He’s still awaiting a certificate of occupancy for his rebuilt home after more than six years of permits, lawsuits, and skyrocketing costs. Captured in gory bureaucratic detail by the Wall Street Journal, Wasilewski’s battle to rebuild after life-changing tragedy should be an inspiring story of resilience. Instead, it reads like a bingo card for everything we’ve come to expect from a state that remains millions of housing units short of its goals. With thousands of new homes destroyed in recent fires, the state’s already strained housing market faces even greater challenges: skyrocketing materials prices, labor shortages, and painfully slow permitting. Recent policy changes aim to speed up the process, but rebuilding still favors the wealthy, leaving many working-class families priced out. Wall Street Journal

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🔥⏳😷-  FROM FIRE CRISIS TO PUBLIC HEALTH NIGHTMARE — Los Angeles’ wildfire death toll stands at 24, but the real toll will climb for years. Toxic smoke from burning homes, vehicles, and debris carries deadly PM2.5 particles, lead, and other carcinogens linked to respiratory diseases, heart conditions, and premature death. Research shows wildfire smoke kills thousands annually—more than the fires themselves. But what’s been burning in L.A. isn’t just trees and chaparral. Everything in a contemporary American home — chemical solvents, computers and batteries, carbon fiber skis and bicycles — has been vaporized at scale and spread through the air above a metropolitan area that’s home to more than 18 million people. Health effects will hit the most vulnerable hardest, including evacuees exposed to hazardous air and overcrowded shelters during flu season. Experts warn economic, social, and mental stress from the disaster could also drive long-term mortality, mirroring the hidden death tolls seen after hurricanes. Fast Company

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🎧 🔊 🎧 ON THE POD: THE BIG BURN

LAist Science Reporter Jacob Margolis looks at what Angelenos affected by the LA wildfires can expect as they try to rebuild their lives. In this hour, Margolis turns to experts about what to know about housing options, recouping losses, and making homes and neighborhoods more fire resistant. And he also gets insights from a 2017 Tubbs Fire wildfire survivor about the recovery and healing process after losing everything. LAist

🚨🚨🚨 HOT NEW HOUSING POLICY PAPER JUST DROPPED!!!

Our favorite housing policy expert, UC Davis’s Chris Elmendorf, joined forces with two powerhouse compatriots to produce this winter’s hottest housing policy paper. We suggest you take a peek. Big cities are choking on their own bad housing policies, and everyone’s paying the price. This paper cuts through the noise with a sharp proposal: Tie federal Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) to real pro-housing reforms. The message to cities? Play ball or lose the cash. Simple. Effective. Long overdue.

READ THE REPORT

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🎩🪄🎉  IMPACT REVEAL!

It’s your last chance to reflect on the year that was with the New California Coalition’s annual impact report. Dig in to see the strides we made in 2024 on a host of key issues, including housing production, middle income job growth, water and energy security, and homelessness.

<READ THE REPORT>

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👀 OMG

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